Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3f9…45a7 sports 271 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,062 (-7%) realized −$15,061 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%153W / 108L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$782per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$1,968est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$819
7 days−$3,260
14 days−$4,849
30 days−$13,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$15,217
world 9% −$2,633
other 3% +$951
politics 0% −$271
tech 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -8.8% -17.5% 63% 36% -14.6%
≤30d 224 -11.1% -19.6% 60% 32% -17.3%
≤90d 261 -11.5% -20.0% 59% 32% -17.4%
all 261 -11.5% -20.0% 59% 32% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 32% -17.4%
10% -27.6% 14% -25.3%
15% ← realistic here -34.6% 5% -32.5%
20% -41.0% 2% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$293 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$15,061
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses153 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,968
Open positions10
Markets (closed)261 / 271
History coverage48d
Avg bet$782
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 76¢ 74¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 75¢ 74¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 77¢ 81¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Grigor Dimitrov 93¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Marie Bouzkova 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Xiyu Wang 84¢ 82¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 77¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Alexander Zverev 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 84¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $272 +$36 +13%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $101 +$4 +4%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $159 +$18 +11%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $212 +$32 +15%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $87 +$12 +13%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $1,001 +$39 +4%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $73 −$8 -11%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $180 +$34 +19%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $704 +$151 +22%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $172 −$9 -5%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $453 +$38 +8%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $636 +$47 +7%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $202 +$65 +32%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $813 +$100 +12%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $1,009 −$991 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1,087 −$309 -28%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $121 +$12 +10%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 15 $66 +$3 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $522 −$123 -24%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $1 $0 -32%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $388 +$26 +7%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $4,070 +$172 +4%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $2,581 +$146 +6%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $192 +$16 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $153 −$10 -7%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $333 +$21 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ $308 8m
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 80¢ $104 17m
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 70¢ $20 46m
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 71¢ $20 47m
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 80¢ $20 59m
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 78¢ $20 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 66¢ $85 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 42¢ $8 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 42¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 42¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 43¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 43¢ $7 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 43¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 43¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 46¢ $9 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 47¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 48¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 49¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Elise Mertens 49¢ $11 1h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata BUY Max Alcala Gurri 95¢ $5 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 84¢ $25 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 85¢ $48 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 86¢ $28 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 85¢ $3 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 86¢ $7 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 87¢ $1 2h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 87¢ $26 2h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 87¢ $8 2h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 88¢ $26 2h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 89¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.53 · official $270.54 (match) · 1544 history records