Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3f9…62bf sports 451 markets active 3h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,475 (+17%) realized +$24,809 · open −$334
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate91%400W / 39L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$668
7 days+$3,468
14 days+$5,332
30 days+$4,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$19,487
other 12% +$3,214
finance 2% +$1,142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +8.5% -1.8% 93% 21% +16.8%
≤30d 50 +9.2% -1.2% 92% 26% +9.4%
≤90d 226 +9.3% -1.1% 93% 44% +3.3%
all 439 +8.0% -2.3% 91% 40% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 40% +6.9%
10% -11.6% 16% -3.4%
15% -20.2% 8% -12.7%
20% -28.0% 6% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$213 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$5,979
Realized+$24,809
Unrealized−$334
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses400 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions12
Markets (closed)439 / 451
History coverage125d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 89¢ 94¢ $1,384 $1,469 +$86 (+6%)
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Over 57¢ 53¢ $1,281 $1,191 −$90 (-7%)
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Over 57¢ 52¢ $1,282 $1,170 −$112 (-9%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 85¢ 94¢ $562 $616 +$54 (+10%)
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5) FK Bodø/Glimt 97¢ 97¢ $531 $532 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 92¢ 93¢ $372 $375 +$3 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $200 $226 +$26 (+13%)
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 78¢ 40¢ $390 $200 −$190 (-49%)
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 78¢ 40¢ $236 $121 −$115 (-49%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $52 $60 +$7 (+14%)
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-1.5) FK Bodø/Glimt 93¢ 74¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-20%)
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $183 +$143 +78%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,123 +$65 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $556 +$460 +83%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,256 +$56 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $132 +$118 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $457 +$199 +44%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $215 −$212 -99%
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,671 +$2,472 +44%
Dani Olmo: 5+ shots Jun 15 $136 +$2 +2%
Mikel Merino: 5+ shots Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Eric García: 4+ shots Jun 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Eric García: 3+ shots Jun 15 $57 +$1 +2%
Alex Baena: 5+ shots Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Martín Zubimendi: 5+ shots Jun 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Marc Pubill: 2+ shots Jun 15 $101 +$2 +2%
Pedro Porro: 5+ shots Jun 15 $108 +$1 +1%
Marc Pubill: 3+ shots Jun 15 $121 +$2 +1%
Pedro Porro: 4+ shots Jun 15 $108 +$2 +2%
Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals Jun 15 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Marc Pubill be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $156 +$4 +2%
Will Aymeric Laporte be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $223 +$4 +2%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $154 +$4 +2%
Will Dani Olmo be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Rodri be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $429 +$251 +58%
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +6%
Will Martín Zubimendi be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Eric García be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $91 +$3 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $120 −$118 -99%
Spread: Puerto Rico (-2.5) Jun 08 $131 +$4 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $135 +$16 +12%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 08 $144 +$17 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $285 +$215 +75%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $617 +$45 +7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,827 +$1,542 +84%
Spread: Nicaragua (-2.5) Jun 08 $49 +$1 +3%
Spread: Aruba (-2.5) Jun 08 $49 +$1 +3%
Spread: Mongolia (-2.5) Jun 08 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 08 $67 +$21 +31%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 05 $555 −$554 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $1,311 −$1,311 -100%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5) Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Raja Club Athletic vs. RS Berkane: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $243 +$7 +3%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $431 +$559 +130%
Spread: Caracas FC (-2.5) Jun 01 $38 +$2 +5%
Spread: SC União Torreense (-2.5) Jun 01 $295 +$6 +2%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? Jun 01 $344 +$26 +8%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $581 +$49 +8%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $613 +$52 +8%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? Jun 01 $649 +$84 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $153 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 78¢ $196 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 78¢ $238 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $135 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 78¢ $196 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $144 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $556 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $183 3d
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $215 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 69¢ $457 4d
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 5d
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 5d
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 5d
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 5d
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,978.77 · official $5,978.77 (match) · 1754 history records