Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3fa…51ce sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$113 (-26%) realized −$108 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$67
sports 28% −$26
culture 16% +$6
weather 5% −$20
crypto 3% −$8
tech 3% +$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.1% -16.0% 33% 17% -46.4%
≤30d 61 -30.0% -36.7% 34% 30% -33.8%
≤90d 76 -31.6% -38.1% 36% 29% -36.4%
all 76 -31.6% -38.1% 36% 29% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 29% -36.4%
10% -44.1% 24% -42.5%
15% -49.5% 17% -48.0%
20% -54.4% 13% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)76 / 93
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 51¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+95%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Yes 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Jacob Elordi and Kendall Jenner confirmed relationship by June 30? Yes 90¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Chris Rodesch 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 +$1 +13%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? May 28 $1 −$1 -70%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Lakewood: Sophie Suh vs Eva Alvarez Sande May 28 $1 +$1 +113%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 27 $1 +$1 +105%
Little Rock: Aidan Mayo vs Edas Butvilas May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $1 $0 -42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka May 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Yasutaka Uchiyama May 25 $1 $0 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $2 $0 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 25 $1 $0 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $1 $0 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Gabriela Ruse May 24 $1 $0 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic May 24 $3 −$3 -86%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova May 24 $2 +$2 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $6 +$7 +119%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -35%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $6 −$3 -46%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $1 $0 +44%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Marina Bass May 22 $6 −$4 -66%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $2 +$3 +161%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $6 +$3 +42%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty May 22 $6 +$7 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 22¢ $1 5m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $3 26m
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 15¢ $1 31m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva $1 36m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva $1 38m
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 20¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald $0 1h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 16¢ $1 1h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata SELL Yanki Erel 59¢ $2 1h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 53¢ $2 1h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 97¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 39¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Alycia Parks 23¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 48¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8d
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes $0 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Donna Vekic 40¢ $1 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame BUY Adolfo Vallejo 75¢ $2 19d
ITF Lakewood: Sophie Suh vs Eva Alvarez Sande SELL Eva Alvarez Sande 100¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.69 · official $48.69 (match) · 186 history records