Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3fb…9a4f crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$43 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%66W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$21
other 29% +$46
tech 11% +$27
sports 8% −$72
politics 7% +$9
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 44 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 68 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$201 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses66 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage135d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $171 $170 −$1 (-0%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 98¢ $136 $135 −$2 (-1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $7.50? No 99¢ 80¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $129 $0 +0%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 14? Jun 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $93 +$6 +6%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $112 +$7 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $114 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $117 +$5 +4%
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? Jun 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $339 +$3 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on May 22? May 22 $338 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $337 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $334 +$1 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of May 11 2 May 15 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the May 15 $247 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $297 +$1 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026? May 08 $320 +$9 +3%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $314 +$4 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $2.00 end of April? May 01 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of April? May 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor reach $8.75 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor reach $10 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA dip to $120 in April? May 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April? May 01 $21 $0 +2%
Will Amazon reach $296 in April? May 01 $365 +$6 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 13? Apr 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on April 13? Apr 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on April 12? Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 12? Apr 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on April 11? Apr 13 $165 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on April 11? Apr 13 $284 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on April 10? Apr 11 $859 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri Apr 11 $855 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $851 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $837 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $228 +$9 +4%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 07 $138 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in March? Apr 07 $242 +$3 +1%
Will Tesla reach $533 in March? Apr 07 $441 +$9 +2%
Will XRP reach $1.80 March 16-22? Mar 23 $239 +$1 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $207 −$201 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $285 +$15 +5%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $322 +$24 +7%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $74 +$13 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $304 +$76 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $105 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $7.50? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 99¢ $155 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 4d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 4d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $79 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $102 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $99 13d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $133 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $37 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $78 13d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? BUY No 100¢ $110 17d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $93 18d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 19d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $93 19d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $86 19d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 19d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $114 19d
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 26d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 26d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $129 26d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $339 29d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $338 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $337 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.05 · official $309.05 (match) · 178 history records