Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3fe…b0e4 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-5%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 25% -19.0%
≤30d 24 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 25% -19.0%
≤90d 24 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 25% -19.0%
all 24 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 25% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 25% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 8% -26.7%
15% -38.5% 8% -33.8%
20% -44.5% 8% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records