Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D3 0xd3fe…c32c other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$325
7 days−$305
14 days−$308
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$296
sports 13% −$18
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +18.5% +7.2% 45% 39% -58.2%
≤30d 70 +13.8% +2.9% 44% 39% -58.2%
≤90d 70 +13.8% +2.9% 44% 39% -58.2%
all 95 +6.5% -3.6% 40% 36% -56.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 36% -56.2%
10% -12.9% 33% -60.4%
15% -21.3% 27% -64.2%
20% -29.0% 23% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)95 / 116
History coverage242d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$20 +100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $335 −$330 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -94%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $9 −$6 -70%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 +$7 +712%
Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 +$11 +1116%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Eldor Shomurodov: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -28%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 +$5 +442%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $2 +$3 +170%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$2 +197%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 31¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 30¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 38¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 28¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 30¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 10¢ $19 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 10¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 28¢ $15 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 27¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 29¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 28¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 25¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 25¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 27¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 25¢ $2 3h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 11¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 73¢ $22 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.02 · official $343.95 · 260 history records