Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3fe…979b other 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$696 (-13%) realized −$683 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%67W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,256
7 days−$1,145
14 days−$983
30 days−$1,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$221
crypto 32% +$28
sports 27% −$834
world 4% −$73
politics 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -67.7% -70.8% 16% 16% -69.9%
≤30d 96 -49.1% -54.0% 24% 24% -62.4%
≤90d 174 -16.3% -24.3% 36% 34% -31.7%
all 197 -22.7% -30.1% 34% 33% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 33% -31.6%
10% -36.8% 30% -38.2%
15% -42.9% 27% -44.2%
20% -48.5% 24% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized−$683
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses67 / 130
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions26
Markets (closed)197 / 226
History coverage167d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $168 $202 +$33 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $81 $66 −$16 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $39 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+21%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 66¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 74¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 50¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-33%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 58¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+41%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 71¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 39¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? Jun 29 $20 +$19 +95%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $353 −$300 -85%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $6 +$4 +64%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 +$6 +115%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $5 +$5 +105%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 29 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 29 $54 −$35 -65%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 29 $49 −$36 -73%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 29 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $131 +$38 +29%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $19 +$25 +134%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 81¢ $302 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 18¢ $25 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 35¢ $51 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 2h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 6h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $15 7h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY 56¢ $3 7h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 63¢ $50 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 46¢ $5 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $20 27h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $23 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $110 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will United States win on 2026-0 BUY 22¢ $10 28h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $101 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $30 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.72 · official $533.91 (match) · 579 history records