Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D3 0xd3fe…d391 politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,200per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$15
economics 35% $0
other 5% −$42
sports 4% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -33.4% -39.7% 0% 0% -39.7%
all 18 -1.9% -11.3% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$988) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage183d
Avg bet$1,200
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $124 −$41 -33%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 12 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $982 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $979 +$3 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 23 $988 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $989 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $6,917 +$1 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $988 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $989 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 49d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $63 57d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 103d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $977 119d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $978 122d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $978 130d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $979 131d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $979 132d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $980 133d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $980 134d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $981 135d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $980 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.92 · official $32.92 (match) · 95 history records