Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd401…3474 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+6%) realized +$11 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$27
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$21
crypto 13% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 80% 60% +3.2%
≤30d 6 -14.5% -22.6% 67% 50% -1.9%
≤90d 6 -14.5% -22.6% 67% 50% -1.9%
all 6 -14.5% -22.6% 67% 50% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 50% -1.9%
10% -30.0% 33% -11.3%
15% -36.8% 33% -19.8%
20% -43.0% 0% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $84 $91 +$7 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 +$26 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $84 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $59 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $36 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.67 · official $90.67 (match) · 11 history records