Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd402…8c7b sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+9%) realized +$59 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%43W / 38L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$53
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$30
sports 28% +$28
crypto 18% +$3
world 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 52% -5.3%
≤30d 57 +7.9% -2.4% 53% 47% +0.8%
≤90d 57 +7.9% -2.4% 53% 47% +0.8%
all 81 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 46% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 46% -0.8%
10% -15.8% 38% -10.3%
15% -23.9% 32% -18.9%
20% -31.4% 26% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses43 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)81 / 91
History coverage220d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 78¢ 68¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 39¢ 64¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 58¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$5 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 16 $12 +$4 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$5 -25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +56%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$2 +54%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$8 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $7 +$5 +64%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $9 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$36 +368%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 $0 -16%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $4 +$3 +83%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 +$10 +325%
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 +$3 +76%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +90%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5 May 31 $8 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $34 +$9 +27%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $7 +$7 +104%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $28 −$5 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $107 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 38m
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $4 9h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 9h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 81¢ $10 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $10 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 16h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $8 16h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $6 21h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Belgium 100¢ $2 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.03 · official $47.03 (match) · 203 history records