Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd403…6b0b crypto 1927 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$323 (+3%) realized +$323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%1201W / 575L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day64.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$379
14 days+$804
30 days+$880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,089
sports 0% −$7
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 556 +8.0% -2.3% 66% 47% -0.5%
≤30d 1505 +9.2% -1.2% 66% 54% -0.3%
≤90d 1776 +8.6% -1.8% 68% 58% -0.9%
all 1776 +8.6% -1.8% 68% 58% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 58% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 56% -10.4%
15% -19.8% 45% -19.1%
20% -27.6% 41% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1201 / 575
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1776 / 1927
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day64.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1776 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records