Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd406…7e60 crypto 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,719 (+175%) realized +$12,719 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%321W / 163L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day209.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$654
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 482 +8.3% -2.1% 66% 54% -1.4%
≤30d 484 +9.1% -1.3% 66% 54% -1.4%
≤90d 484 +9.1% -1.3% 66% 54% -1.4%
all 484 +9.1% -1.3% 66% 54% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 54% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 40% -10.8%
15% -19.4% 21% -19.4%
20% -27.3% 10% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$12,719
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses321 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 476
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day209.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$24 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $139 −$19 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $83 +$27 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $91 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $92 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $123 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$52 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$36 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$18 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $16 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.41 · official $76.81 · 3500 history records