Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd406…e83a
crypto · 254 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$139,157 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139,157 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$139,157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses126 / 453
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)579 / 254
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,067
Trades / day1453.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 579 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134,882
7 days−$139,157
14 days−$139,157
30 days−$139,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3,138 $0 −$3,138 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $800 $0 −$800 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $2,500 $0 −$2,500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $3,138 −$3,138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3,532 −$3,532 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1,205 −$1,205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1,758 −$1,758 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $795 −$795 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $505 −$505 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$30,938
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $101 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $97 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 579 -61.2% -64.9% 22% 21% -42.7%
≤30d 579 -61.2% -64.9% 22% 21% -42.7%
≤90d 579 -61.2% -64.9% 22% 21% -42.7%
all 579 -61.2% -64.9% 22% 21% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1453.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.9% 21% -42.7%
10% -68.2% 20% -48.2%
15% ← realistic here -71.3% 18% -53.2%
20% -74.1% 16% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records