Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd40c…16d6 crypto 1220 markets active 3d ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,016 (-8%) realized −$1,016 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%765W / 707L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day69.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,366
other 8% −$692
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -71.4% -74.1% 17% 12% -80.0%
≤30d 916 -28.2% -35.0% 46% 35% -58.3%
≤90d 1472 -19.5% -27.2% 52% 39% -37.0%
all 1472 -19.5% -27.2% 52% 39% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 39% -37.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 28% -43.0%
15% -40.5% 20% -48.5%
20% -46.3% 15% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,016
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses765 / 707
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1472 / 1220
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day69.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1472 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $571 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $130 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $130 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $29 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records