Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd40c…ed39 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+9%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%41W / 17L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$46
other 11% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +3.4% -6.5% 71% 53% -5.5%
≤30d 58 +3.4% -6.5% 71% 53% -5.5%
≤90d 58 +3.4% -6.5% 71% 53% -5.5%
all 58 +3.4% -6.5% 71% 53% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 53% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 28% -14.6%
15% -23.6% 14% -22.8%
20% -31.1% 7% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses41 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$5 -42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$5 -56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$1 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$4 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$16 -69%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$6 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$14 -48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$12 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$3 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$3 -49%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$19 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$3 -35%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $8 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records