Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd40d…a926
other · 38 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$21,569 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,055 · open +$3,515
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29,094
Realized+$18,055
Unrealized+$3,515
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$870
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage591d
Avg bet$2,988
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 4 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4,786
30 days+$49,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15,063 $19,255 +$4,193 (+28%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4,449 $4,511 +$62 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,374 $2,930 −$444 (-13%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2,694 $2,398 −$296 (-11%)
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Over 4.5 31¢ 0¢ $418 $0 −$418 (-100%)
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $529 $0 −$529 (-100%)
Kamala Harris blowout victory? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Novak Djokovic win a Major in 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $275 $0 −$275 (-100%)
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $229 $0 −$229 (-100%)
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,684 $0 −$3,684 (-100%)
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $1,406 $0 −$1,406 (-100%)
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? No 31¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) Jong 43¢ 0¢ $2,256 $0 −$2,256 (-100%)
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Maia 25¢ 0¢ $794 $0 −$794 (-100%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? No 30¢ 0¢ $2,500 $0 −$2,500 (-100%)
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $905 $0 −$905 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Svajda 26¢ 0¢ $2,432 $0 −$2,432 (-100%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5,392 $0 −$5,392 (-100%)
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $188 $0 −$188 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul Lorenzo Sonego 15¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
BLAST Open: FURIA vs. G2 FURIA 55¢ 0¢ $3,850 $0 −$3,850 (-100%)
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $460 $0 −$460 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $918 −$894 -97%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $17 +$39 +223%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $7,750 +$4,750 +61%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $6,013 +$5,987 +100%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $419 −$418 -100%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 01 $2,435 −$2,432 -100%
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $14 +$10 +70%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) May 31 $2,272 −$2,256 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,304 +$4,212 +98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $473 −$460 -97%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Halys (+2.5) May 30 $4,100 +$5,900 +144%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $235 −$229 -97%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $268 −$260 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $193 −$188 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 29 $7,887 +$21,872 +277%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul May 27 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini May 26 $2 +$3 +216%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $17,540 +$14,894 +85%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 08 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 09 $3,684 −$3,684 -100%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $8,792 −$8,792 -100%
BLAST Open: FURIA vs. G2 Sep 06 $3,850 −$3,850 -100%
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Sep 01 $794 −$794 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win a Major in 2025? Sep 01 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Sep 01 $905 −$905 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 17 $529 −$529 -100%
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose? Apr 09 $950 −$950 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $5,392 −$5,392 -100%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 06 $1,406 −$1,406 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Kamala Harris blowout victory? Nov 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% +$46,417
other 34% −$8,987
politics 14% −$15,861
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 14m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $178 21m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 25m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 29m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 37m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 42m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $209 53m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 56m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $69 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $86 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $285 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 +20.7% +9.2% 50% 50% +69.3%
≤90d 19 +30.8% +18.3% 53% 53% +69.3%
all 34 -26.9% -33.9% 29% 29% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 29% +9.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 29% -1.2%
15% -46.0% 29% -10.8%
20% -51.3% 29% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,094.38 · official $29,112.14 (match) · 458 history records