Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd40f…2432
other · 56 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage420d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $114 +$4 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $93 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 23 $15 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Lucknow Super Giants win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 10 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $2 $0 -12%
Will Knicks vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 07 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? May 06 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 29 $22 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $21 +$1 +6%
Israel military action against Iran in April? Apr 28 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 27 $19 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 25 $1 $0 +8%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $1 $0 -23%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Apr 24 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% +$6
other 30% −$2
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $18 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $41 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $59 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 16h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $6 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $35 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $11 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $47 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $58 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $55 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $40 37h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $40 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $55 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -9.9% 56% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -8.6%
all 55 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.27 · official $4.27 (match) · 196 history records