Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd410…3a1b other 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,692 (+17%) realized +$12,737 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate71%90W / 36L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day197.7pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$3,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$3,148
sports 14% +$459
crypto 4% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +5.8% -4.3% 71% 14% -7.6%
≤30d 126 +10.4% -0.1% 71% 15% -4.1%
≤90d 126 +10.4% -0.1% 71% 15% -4.1%
all 126 +10.4% -0.1% 71% 15% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 15% -4.1%
10% -9.7% 13% -13.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.4% 12% -21.7%
20% -26.4% 11% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$537) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$17 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.76 per $1 lost it wins $7.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3,112
Realized+$12,737
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses90 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions15
Markets (closed)126 / 140
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$524
Trades / day197.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $635 $638 +$3 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? No 37¢ 36¢ $370 $365 −$5 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance Belgium 61¢ 60¢ $305 $302 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? No 56¢ 56¢ $280 $277 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $270 $267 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $228 $226 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 42¢ 42¢ $210 $213 +$3 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $208 $210 +$2 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 42¢ $215 $207 −$7 (-3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Casper Ruud 34¢ 34¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 58¢ $65 $54 −$11 (-17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $33 $9 −$24 (-72%)
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance Ghana 19¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Jun 29 $275 +$5 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $130 +$5 +4%
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $740 +$10 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $961 +$8 +1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $207 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $240 −$15 -6%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 28 $667 +$22 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $514 +$8 +2%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Jun 28 $215 +$19 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $830 −$1 -0%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $815 +$18 +2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $417 −$53 -13%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $282 +$6 +2%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Jun 28 $370 $0 +0%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $244 +$5 +2%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $243 −$5 -2%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $299 +$248 +83%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 +$5 +100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $760 +$3 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $111 +$221 +199%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,444 +$22 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $288 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $314 +$2 +1%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $3,352 +$157 +5%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $468 +$26 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $872 +$101 +12%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $18 +$19 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $218 −$2 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2,907 +$9 +0%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $216 +$12 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $390 −$86 -22%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $360 −$220 -61%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $810 −$10 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,960 +$74 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,839 +$83 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $369 +$10 +3%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $576 +$36 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,289 +$67 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $522 +$31 +6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $159 −$15 -9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $220 −$26 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $565 −$13 -2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $320 −$9 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1,689 +$1 +0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $155 −$8 -5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $661 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance BUY Ghana 19¢ $0 11m
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? SELL No 56¢ $280 23m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 31m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 40m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 40m
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 27¢ $135 1h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $81 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 63¢ $209 1h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 3h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 3h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $20 3h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 4h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $65 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $40 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $49 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $16 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $8 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $30 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,112.20 · official $3,112.23 (match) · 3500 history records