Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd416…d9e2 other 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,206 (+4%) realized +$3,562 · open +$644
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%184W / 99L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6,122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$248
14 days−$287
30 days+$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1,855
world 27% +$2,124
culture 11% −$1,179
politics 11% −$357
tech 6% +$1,328
sports 2% +$58
economics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.3% -20.6% 70% 40% -22.5%
≤30d 43 +5.2% -4.8% 81% 51% -2.5%
≤90d 77 +3.6% -6.3% 74% 44% -5.0%
all 283 +7.9% -2.4% 65% 42% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 42% -6.7%
10% -11.7% 27% -15.6%
15% -20.3% 17% -23.8%
20% -28.1% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$141 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$6,122
Realized+$3,562
Unrealized+$644
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses184 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)283 / 297
History coverage214d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $1,905 $2,441 +$536 (+28%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $965 $952 −$12 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 75¢ 95¢ $600 $762 +$162 (+27%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $363 $393 +$30 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $365 $362 −$3 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 72¢ $300 $286 −$14 (-5%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 78¢ 81¢ $241 $252 +$11 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 57¢ $326 $230 −$96 (-30%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 38¢ 42¢ $190 $208 +$17 (+9%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? No 62¢ 82¢ $66 $88 +$22 (+33%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 59¢ 64¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $20 $11 −$10 (-48%)
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 Jun 18 $27 +$14 +50%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Jun 18 $85 +$43 +50%
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 Jun 18 $477 +$11 +2%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $308 +$20 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$6 +14%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 18 $448 −$274 -61%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $251 +$11 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 06 $98 −$39 -39%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Jun 02 $897 +$578 +64%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $62 +$10 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,007 +$523 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,161 −$547 -47%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 31 $15 +$5 +32%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, May 30 $173 +$10 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $12 +$1 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 30 $141 +$18 +13%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $582 −$544 -94%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $1,868 +$415 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 27 $248 +$73 +30%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $644 +$2 +0%
Will Comey smile in his mugshot? May 25 $1,631 +$14 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $861 +$88 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $511 +$77 +15%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 25 $88 −$49 -55%
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 24 $0 $0 +92%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $22 +$4 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $604 +$196 +33%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 22 $185 +$28 +15%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $1,212 +$16 +1%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $1,335 +$118 +9%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by Dece May 21 $53 +$14 +26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $138 −$23 -17%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $352 +$91 +26%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $225 +$19 +9%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $103 +$21 +20%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $52 +$6 +11%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $845 +$406 +48%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $348 +$51 +15%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $206 +$472 +229%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? May 19 $1,689 +$192 +11%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $1,889 +$9 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 18 $453 −$218 -48%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failur May 18 $556 −$546 -98%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $1,053 −$192 -18%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? May 17 $1,565 −$259 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 78¢ $241 17m
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? BUY No 62¢ $67 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $360 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $190 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $120 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $242 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $163 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $163 6h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $0 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $2 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $62 6h
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $17 6h
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $24 6h
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $97 6h
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $253 6h
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $128 6h
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 SELL No 91¢ $32 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $220 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $0 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $16 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 82¢ $126 8h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 82¢ $202 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $81 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,122.17 · official $6,119.05 (match) · 2391 history records