Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd418…24c3 world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 37% −$2
world 27% −$67
other 24% −$13
politics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 3% -12.7%
≤90d 34 -0.9% -10.3% 35% 3% -11.0%
all 60 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 2% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -10.8%
10% -18.7% 2% -19.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage325d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $67 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $183 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $143 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $48 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $73 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +23%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $35 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $72 +$5 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $194 −$64 -33%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $50 −$7 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $4 $0 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $44 +$1 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $2 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $118 −$13 -11%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $2,133 −$2 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $829 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Syria by July 31? Aug 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $68 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $69 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Yoon out of custody by July 31? Jul 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $11 $0 -2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $59 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Jul 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 29 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $18 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $18 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $37 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.21 · official $36.21 (match) · 236 history records