Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd41c…c0e5 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
other 18% +$1
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.0% -16.8% 0% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -7.5% -16.3% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -6.3% -15.2% 24% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage453d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 40¢ $30 $28 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $27 +$2 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 11d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $29 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.60 · official $27.60 (match) · 108 history records