Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd41d…0282
world · 34 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage463d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 0 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $79 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 75% +$2
other 12% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $42 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $40 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $27 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $11 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $39 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $1 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $1 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $15 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $14 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $11 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $6 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $32 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $38 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $18 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $37 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $17 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 6% -9.2%
all 34 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records