Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd41d…97e5 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$134 (-33%) realized −$133 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$56
sports 47% −$67
crypto 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -25.4% -32.5% 33% 29% -51.8%
≤30d 21 -25.4% -32.5% 33% 29% -51.8%
≤90d 21 -25.4% -32.5% 33% 29% -51.8%
all 21 -25.4% -32.5% 33% 29% -51.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 29% -51.8%
10% -39.0% 29% -56.4%
15% -44.9% 19% -60.6%
20% -50.3% 19% -64.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$133
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 +$5 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$1 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 −$26 -80%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $91 −$60 -66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$10 -33%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $25 10m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 12m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 20m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $24 21m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $25 22m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 44m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 48m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $32 30h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 30h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.50 · official $71.50 (match) · 51 history records