Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D4 0xd41e…dc32 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+5%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$16
sports 13% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 62% +5.0%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 62% +5.0%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 62% +5.0%
all 8 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 62% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 62% +5.0%
10% -19.3% 50% -5.0%
15% -27.1% 38% -14.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $59 +$8 +14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$5 +47%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $39 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $8 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 71¢ $11 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 95¢ $15 28h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 85¢ $6 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 64¢ $10 29h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $5 33h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records