Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd41f…cd49 weather 1719 markets active 6d ago coverage 139d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$402 (-5%) realized −$402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate64%1103W / 616L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$197
crypto 30% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 40% -9.6%
≤30d 350 -5.1% -14.1% 39% 39% -11.0%
≤90d 1128 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 14% -11.9%
all 1719 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 16% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 16% -12.3%
10% -19.3% 12% -20.7%
15% -27.1% 10% -28.3%
20% -34.3% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1103 / 616
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1719 / 1719
History coverage139d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1719 Trades
no open positions (221 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$18 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records