Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd421…191c
crypto · 754 markets active 17h ago
0.0score
−$2,044 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,918 · open −$126
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$1,918
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses174 / 557
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions13
Markets (closed)731 / 754
History coverage138d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 13 History 731 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$514
14 days−$470
30 days−$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $24 $5 −$19 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $27 +$56 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $825 −$801 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$94 +1472%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$73 +1138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$37 +1147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$10 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$1,391
other 19% −$631
sports 4% +$164
politics 2% −$173
world 1% −$7
weather 0% −$9
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 18h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 18h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $83 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 22h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $382 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $339 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -5.5% -14.5% 15% 15% -29.3%
≤30d 136 -16.1% -24.1% 14% 13% -27.0%
≤90d 492 -25.4% -32.5% 23% 21% -22.2%
all 731 -29.6% -36.3% 24% 22% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 22% -24.5%
10% -42.4% 19% -31.7%
15% -48.0% 17% -38.3%
20% -53.1% 15% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.69 · official $27.69 (match) · 1946 history records