Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd421…2713
crypto · 412 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$414 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$720 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses244 / 168
Open positions0
Markets (closed)412 / 412
History coverage37d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 412 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$362
14 days−$362
30 days−$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$19 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$55 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$720
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -5.9% -14.8% 63% 41% -18.1%
≤30d 236 -8.1% -16.8% 61% 39% -18.9%
≤90d 412 -9.4% -18.1% 59% 39% -17.9%
all 412 -9.4% -18.1% 59% 39% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 39% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 17% -25.8%
15% -33.1% 8% -32.9%
20% -39.6% 5% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1982 history records