Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd422…9531
crypto · 866 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$209 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$209 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses384 / 482
Open positions0
Markets (closed)866 / 866
History coverage14d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day244.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 866 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$63
14 days−$209
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$26 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +1.1% -8.6% 40% 25% -12.1%
≤30d 866 -0.0% -9.5% 44% 28% -11.1%
≤90d 866 -0.0% -9.5% 44% 28% -11.1%
all 866 -0.0% -9.5% 44% 28% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover244.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 28% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 18% -19.6%
15% -26.1% 10% -27.4%
20% -33.3% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records