Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D4 0xd423…0dac world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$45 (+2%) realized +$155 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$103
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$79
other 20% −$25
sports 10% +$27
crypto 8% +$69
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 39% +2.8%
≤30d 23 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 39% +2.8%
≤90d 23 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 39% +2.8%
all 29 +20.8% +9.3% 48% 41% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 41% +0.9%
10% -1.1% 41% -8.7%
15% -10.7% 41% -17.5%
20% -19.4% 34% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$661
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)29 / 42
History coverage252d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $232 $230 −$2 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $175 $112 −$63 (-36%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $65 $111 +$46 (+70%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 52¢ 63¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ 7¢ $69 $19 −$51 (-73%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $45 $17 −$28 (-63%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $65 +$27 +42%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 +$40 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$37 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$40 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $47 −$37 -79%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $40 +$34 +85%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +186%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -79%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12? Oct 13 $31 +$22 +70%
Will Albania win on 2025-10-11? Oct 12 $5 +$26 +525%
Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Single Oct 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot Oct 11 $4 +$25 +567%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-09? Oct 10 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 52¢ $50 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 48¢ $70 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $69 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 18h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $15 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $20 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 33¢ $10 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 33¢ $10 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 33¢ $10 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 36¢ $20 24h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $235 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $182 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $49 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $660.92 · official $657.39 (match) · 129 history records