Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D4 0xd423…99e9 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,056 (-29%) realized −$882 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$931now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$521
7 days+$365
14 days+$157
30 days−$877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$956
sports 23% +$25
crypto 3% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 60% +12.6%
≤30d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 42% -35.4%
≤90d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 42% -35.4%
all 19 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 42% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 42% -35.4%
10% -40.7% 42% -41.5%
15% -46.5% 42% -47.2%
20% -51.7% 32% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$156 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$931
Realized−$882
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage29d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 69¢ 68¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 28¢ $250 $129 −$121 (-48%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 40¢ $150 $100 −$50 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $152 +$68 +45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $306 +$256 +84%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $203 +$105 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $203 +$136 +67%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 +$34 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $204 +$147 +72%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 +$30 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $148 +$60 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $1,042 −$1,042 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $51 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $153 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $153 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $152 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $152 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $204 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $203 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $203 32h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 51¢ $51 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $204 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $102 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $202 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $48 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $67 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $148 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $49 22d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $47 22d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $51 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,042 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $931.47 · official $931.47 (match) · 43 history records