Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd424…bf7b
crypto · 580 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$787 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$874 · open −$87
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$874
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses263 / 312
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions5
Markets (closed)575 / 580
History coverage30d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 5 History 575 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$151
14 days−$56
30 days+$929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 22¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-98%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 13¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Thunder 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 42¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 4 Winner paiN Gaming Academy 36¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Yes 51¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Eternal Fire 23¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Thunder 28¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 +$64 +180%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $36 +$46 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $108 +$96 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $71 +$104 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $221 −$26 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $35 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $67 −$65 -97%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $31 +$48 +158%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $32 −$31 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $120 −$66 -55%
Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 02 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 02 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 01 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 01 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $11 +$100 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 01 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $31 +$40 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $57 +$48 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $67 +$38 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $41 +$33 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 01 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $41 +$36 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% +$869
sports 36% +$235
other 5% −$290
finance 0% −$20
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $7 54m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $26 55m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 13¢ $14 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $37 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 97¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $36 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $16 15h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $36 15h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $45 15h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 17¢ $18 15h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $108 15h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $15 22h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $41 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $71 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $195 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $221 3d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta BUY ASTRAL 24¢ $35 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 10d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 29¢ $32 10d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 10¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.2% -6.7% 40% 40% +13.1%
≤30d 560 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 46% -5.3%
≤90d 575 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 45% -5.6%
all 575 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 45% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 45% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 45% -14.6%
15% -25.3% 45% -22.9%
20% -32.7% 44% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.66 · official $4.66 (match) · 1079 history records