Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd424…8835 crypto 25 markets active 3d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$245 (-15%) realized −$169 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$377
14 days−$384
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$359
crypto 43% −$82
sports 8% −$130
politics 3% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -74.3% -76.7% 17% 17% -65.3%
≤30d 15 -50.0% -54.8% 27% 27% -44.7%
≤90d 17 -26.7% -33.6% 29% 29% -40.8%
all 23 -12.3% -20.7% 35% 35% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 35% -36.5%
10% -28.3% 30% -42.5%
15% -35.2% 30% -48.1%
20% -41.5% 30% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$65 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage135d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $101 $84 −$17 (-17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 46¢ 25¢ $130 $71 −$59 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 −$75 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $152 +$83 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$79 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 29 $11 +$42 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regio Mar 20 $50 +$62 +124%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 21 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $50 +$167 +333%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 18 $30 +$4 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $78 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $76 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 58d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 54¢ $100 125d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 16¢ $67 125d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 125d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 125d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 125d
Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regio BUY Yes 45¢ $50 125d
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? BUY Yes 46¢ $130 125d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.43 · official $154.43 (match) · 184 history records