Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd425…c0e4 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3399 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$69,990 (+276%) realized +$69,981 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +544% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +395% what you keep after slip
Net edge+395%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate69%370W / 166L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day3399.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3399 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+482.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 536 +543.5% +482.2% 69% 65% +59.1%
≤30d 536 +543.5% +482.2% 69% 65% +59.1%
≤90d 536 +543.5% +482.2% 69% 65% +59.1%
all 536 +543.5% +482.2% 69% 65% +59.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3399.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +482.2% 65% +59.1%
10% ← realistic here +426.5% 64% +43.9%
15% +375.6% 61% +30.0%
20% +329.0% 59% +17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +544% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +1057% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
69.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$81 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$69,981
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses370 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)536 / 49
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$517
Trades / day3399.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $31 +$31 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 9¢ 6¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$29 +541%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$132 -33743%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$110 +512%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$215 -85118%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $38 +$27 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$85 +5252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $136 −$249 -183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $56 −$83 -149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$134 +791%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$171 +1809%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$174 -168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$46 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$147 +16275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $99 −$134 -135%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$37 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$187 +4500%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$28 +1860%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $63 +$209 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$211 +1136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $64 +$169 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $62 +$230 +372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$78 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$151 +758%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $24 +$209 +887%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $55 −$28 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $49 +$109 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$206 +1392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$25 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$209 +1333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $130 −$264 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$112 +690%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$86 -267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$62 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$101 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$136 +535%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$116 +52863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $77 −$90 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$150 +1417%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$195 +3186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $38 −$204 -544%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$163 +4204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $55 −$20 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$34 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$29 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$250 +914%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $32 +$217 +671%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $28 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $13 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.53 · official $83.69 · 3500 history records