Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd426…8eb6 weather 325 markets active 9h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$308 (+0%) realized +$303 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%314W / 10L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$39
14 days+$28
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% +$280
other 22% −$30
sports 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 204 +1.4% -8.2% 97% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 324 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 4% -9.2%
all 324 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -9.2%
10% -16.7% 2% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$75 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses314 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)324 / 325
History coverage88d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? No 99¢ 100¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $505 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $400 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 14 $165 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $182 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $241 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $190 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $170 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $153 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $172 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $200 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $100 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $200 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 97¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $450 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $200 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 98¢ $200 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $200 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $30 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $290 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $70 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $80 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.78 · official $504.78 (match) · 944 history records