Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd426…334a
world · 110 markets active 16h ago
0.0score
−$133,223 -52%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158,789 · open +$7,577
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$133,433
Realized−$158,789
Unrealized+$7,577
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses50 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions76
Markets (closed)349 / 110
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2,341
Trades / day208.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 76 History 349 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193,925
7 days−$198,185
14 days−$161,192
30 days−$158,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $17,934 $18,159 +$225 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $9,186 $11,608 +$2,422 (+26%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $7,020 $11,188 +$4,169 (+59%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $6,421 $10,368 +$3,947 (+61%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $6,780 $7,343 +$564 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 39¢ 40¢ $5,401 $5,632 +$230 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 53¢ $3,900 $5,370 +$1,470 (+38%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 34¢ 76¢ $2,326 $5,278 +$2,952 (+127%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 58¢ 84¢ $3,262 $4,726 +$1,464 (+45%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 61¢ 40¢ $7,208 $4,697 −$2,510 (-35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 33¢ $1,776 $4,019 +$2,243 (+126%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 39¢ 62¢ $1,948 $3,129 +$1,181 (+61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 54¢ 58¢ $2,521 $2,697 +$176 (+7%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 24¢ 51¢ $1,173 $2,487 +$1,314 (+112%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 68¢ 90¢ $1,778 $2,376 +$598 (+34%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 56¢ 91¢ $1,382 $2,253 +$871 (+63%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $203 $2,197 +$1,995 (+985%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2,238 $2,059 −$179 (-8%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $2,689 $2,036 −$654 (-24%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 54¢ 97¢ $1,031 $1,864 +$833 (+81%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 11¢ 39¢ $437 $1,517 +$1,080 (+247%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $5,129 $1,321 −$3,808 (-74%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $915 $1,234 +$318 (+35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 57¢ $960 $1,140 +$180 (+19%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,070 $1,099 +$29 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 12 $22 +$152 +694%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 12 $15 +$15 +96%
Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security App Jun 12 $5 −$18 -326%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $22,551 −$22,567 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: April Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Jun 12 $2,292 −$2,292 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Jun 12 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $484 −$329 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $940 −$1,109 -118%
Will Notre Dame win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Trump say "Mr. Speaker" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Jun 12 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 12 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 12 $550 −$550 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 12 $810 −$810 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $6,860 −$7,651 -112%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3,006 −$4,053 -135%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Jun 12 $791 −$791 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $279 −$279 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $293 −$293 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $313 −$313 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $1,474 −$1,474 -100%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Jun 12 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Jun 12 $1,530 −$1,713 -112%
Will Trump say "Congo" during the State of the Union address? Jun 12 $174 −$174 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $450 −$408 -91%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? Jun 12 $577 −$577 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 2? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Pistons vs. Spurs Jun 12 $251 −$251 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $584 −$584 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $2,215 +$916 +41%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 12 $4,802 −$5,094 -106%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $2,735 −$2,438 -89%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more? Jun 12 $268 −$287 -107%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? Jun 12 $294 −$803 -273%
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 5+ times during Fox interview on Wedn Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% +$36,422
finance 16% −$7,325
other 7% −$3,876
politics 3% +$7,940
crypto 3% +$4,886
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 17¢ $0 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1,195 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $97 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $16 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $11 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $872 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 20h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 22h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 22h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 23h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $131 25h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 27h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $83 30h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $73 30h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 17¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -45.1% -50.4% 9% 9% -83.7%
≤30d 349 -22.1% -29.5% 14% 13% -51.2%
≤90d 349 -22.1% -29.5% 14% 13% -51.2%
all 349 -22.1% -29.5% 14% 13% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover208.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 13% -51.2%
10% -36.3% 12% -55.8%
15% ← realistic here -42.4% 11% -60.1%
20% -48.1% 10% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133,432.66 · official $133,496.92 (match) · 3500 history records