Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd426…3982 crypto 1228 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,018 (-5%) realized −$2,018 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate70%860W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,295
7 days−$2,163
14 days−$1,085
30 days−$5,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,006
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -53.8% -58.2% 32% 32% -58.2%
≤30d 704 -29.0% -35.8% 50% 48% -27.7%
≤90d 1228 -5.4% -14.4% 70% 63% -14.3%
all 1228 -5.4% -14.4% 70% 63% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 63% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 49% -22.5%
15% -30.1% 30% -30.0%
20% -36.9% 14% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$31 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,018
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses860 / 368
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1228 / 1228
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1228 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $44 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $54 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $64 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $63 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$34 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $54 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $64 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $63 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $49 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $42 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $67 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $60 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $58 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $53 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $53 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $54 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $49 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $69 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $38 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $65 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $49 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $55 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $50 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $44 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records