Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd426…8625 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$11 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$32
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$32
sports 11% +$34
world 4% −$40
crypto 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +35.4% +22.5% 68% 68% -2.2%
≤30d 25 +29.8% +17.4% 64% 64% -0.0%
≤90d 25 +29.8% +17.4% 64% 64% -0.0%
all 25 +29.8% +17.4% 64% 64% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 64% -0.0%
10% +6.2% 64% -9.6%
15% -4.1% 64% -18.3%
20% -13.5% 52% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)25 / 38
History coverage14d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $130 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $120 $106 −$14 (-12%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+6%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$24 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 12h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $10 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 13h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 43h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 44h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $20 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $10 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.13 · official $543.13 (match) · 68 history records