Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd427…a987 crypto 1667 markets active 6d ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-4%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%831W / 836L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$86
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$256
politics 3% +$20
tech 1% −$4
economics 1% +$15
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +4.5% -5.5% 48% 38% -9.4%
≤30d 1319 -6.8% -15.7% 53% 45% -13.6%
≤90d 1667 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 43% -15.3%
all 1667 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 43% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 43% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 34% -23.4%
15% -31.5% 25% -30.8%
20% -38.2% 20% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses831 / 836
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1667 / 1667
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1667 Trades
no open positions (451 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +155%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.35 · official $38.13 (match) · 3500 history records