Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd428…6368
crypto · 1047 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$4,690 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,004 · open −$285
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,720
Realized+$1,004
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses612 / 431
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$506
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1043 / 1047
History coverage58d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 1043 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$45
14 days+$75
30 days+$1,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10,937 $11,797 +$860 (+8%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,642 $3,500 −$1,142 (-25%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 49¢ 48¢ $415 $411 −$4 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 48¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$19 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$43 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$42 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$7 +45%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $90 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $88 +$65 +74%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $100 −$73 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $170 +$5 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $138 +$162 +117%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $86 +$15 +17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $86 −$28 -32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $100 −$93 -92%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $80 +$12 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $709 +$940 +133%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $366 −$366 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $60 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $116 +$15 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $439 −$439 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $76 +$24 +32%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $273 −$160 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +110%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$1,449
crypto 13% −$446
politics 12% −$256
other 0% −$17
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $421 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY Yes 1¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY Yes 1¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY Yes 1¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 4h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 81¢ $2 6h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 100¢ $306 6h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 98¢ $300 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 6h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 83¢ $2 6h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar SELL Anna Bondar 100¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 6h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp BUY Mia Pohankova 92¢ $50 7h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Kia Tigers 100¢ $153 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -18.6% -26.4% 48% 43% -9.2%
≤30d 598 -8.4% -17.2% 57% 48% -5.2%
≤90d 1043 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 51% -7.8%
all 1043 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 51% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 51% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 40% -16.6%
15% -30.6% 35% -24.7%
20% -37.4% 30% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,719.64 · official $15,719.64 (match) · 3500 history records