Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D4 0xd42b…baf1 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$254 (+2%) realized +$11,534 · open −$11,280

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$2,461per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$56est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+21.5%	+10.0%	100%	50%	+28.0%
≤30d	2	+21.5%	+10.0%	100%	50%	+28.0%
≤90d	2	+21.5%	+10.0%	100%	50%	+28.0%
all	2	+21.5%	+10.0%	100%	50%	+28.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.0%	50%	+28.0%
10%	-0.6%	50%	+15.7%
15%	-10.2%	50%	+4.5%
20%	-19.0%	0%	-5.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$108 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$260

Realized+$11,534

Unrealized−$11,280

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$56

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2,461

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	8¢	1¢	$2,039	$153	−$1,886 (-92%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	No	35¢	1¢	$5,000	$100	−$4,900 (-98%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$4,500	$7	−$4,493 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$515	+$217	+42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$8	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$41	40m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$514	41m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$514	41m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$514	41m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$514	41m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	35¢	$5,097	56m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	33¢	$4,590	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL No	3¢	$731	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	2¢	$515	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	69¢	$9	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$8	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.78 · official $259.78 (match) · 11 history records