Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd42c…72cb
crypto · 36 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day142.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 0¢ 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.8% -20.2% 74% 43% -12.5%
≤30d 35 -11.8% -20.2% 74% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 35 -11.8% -20.2% 74% 43% -12.5%
all 35 -11.8% -20.2% 74% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover142.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 43% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 23% -20.9%
15% -34.8% 6% -28.5%
20% -41.2% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.63 · official $1.86 (match) · 180 history records