Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd42c…3611 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,613 (-24%) realized −$2,613 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,553per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$2,147
politics 27% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.7% -28.3% 40% 20% -28.4%
≤30d 5 -20.7% -28.3% 40% 20% -28.4%
≤90d 5 -20.7% -28.3% 40% 20% -28.4%
all 5 -20.7% -28.3% 40% 20% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 20% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 20% -35.3%
15% -41.4% 0% -41.5%
20% -47.2% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$764 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$2,613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,553
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $300 −$219 -73%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $542 +$146 +27%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $1,881 −$343 -18%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3,968 −$1,731 -44%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $2,974 +$126 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 44m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No $81 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 11¢ $100 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 17¢ $100 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 18¢ $100 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $688 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $368 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $368 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $174 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 28¢ $174 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 78¢ $487 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 80¢ $487 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 78¢ $478 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $74 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $128 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $400 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $675 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $517 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $517 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $49 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $520 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $600 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 43¢ $1,305 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $376 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $75 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1,094 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $41 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 68¢ $641 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $91 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.50 · official $99.00 (match) · 53 history records