Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D4 0xd42d…94d3 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$605 (+42%) realized +$599 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.3% +7.1% 68% 63% +0.8%
≤30d 19 +18.3% +7.1% 68% 63% +0.8%
≤90d 19 +18.3% +7.1% 68% 63% +0.8%
all 19 +18.3% +7.1% 68% 63% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 63% +0.8%
10% -3.2% 58% -8.8%
15% -12.5% 37% -17.6%
20% -21.1% 32% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$86 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$599
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Azure Dragon Gaming 91¢ 100¢ $68 $74 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $668 −$439 -66%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $202 +$467 +231%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $123 +$79 +64%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $75 +$48 +64%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $57 +$18 +32%
Overwatch: Lazuli vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 24 $42 +$15 +35%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $27 +$15 +54%
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 24 $11 +$17 +154%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 24 $6 +$5 +76%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $5 +$1 +32%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $26 −$21 -82%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $23 +$2 +10%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $53 −$30 -56%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $16 −$16 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 21 $12 +$4 +33%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 21 $11 +$2 +14%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage Jun 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $10 −$8 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 91¢ $68 42m
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL OG 20¢ $229 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 57¢ $668 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL 9INE 100¢ $668 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 29¢ $135 4h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 30¢ $67 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 100¢ $202 5h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 60¢ $86 7h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 61¢ $37 7h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 100¢ $123 7h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 60¢ $75 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 100¢ $75 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 75¢ $57 9h
Overwatch: Lazuli vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage SELL Lazuli 100¢ $57 10h
Overwatch: Lazuli vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Lazuli 73¢ $42 10h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr SELL Walczaki 100¢ $42 11h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Walczaki 64¢ $27 14h
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League SELL SYGaming 99¢ $27 14h
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League BUY SYGaming 38¢ $11 16h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 56¢ $6 37h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 100¢ $6 38h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 75¢ $5 39h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL L1ga Team 13¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 70¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 100¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 91¢ $23 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Inner Circle 24¢ $23 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 53¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $16 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - BetBoom SELL FORZE Esports 100¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.22 · official $74.22 (match) · 40 history records