Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd42f…047d
other · 122 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$47,422 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47,427 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,594
Realized−$47,427
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses94 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
Avg bet$7,788
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 1 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,589 $1,594 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20,526 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $19,985 +$415 +2%
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025? Feb 05 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $20,007 $0 +0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 07 $19,912 +$40 +0%
Bezos divorce in 2025? Jan 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 02 $254 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $376 +$87 +23%
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? Jan 02 $917 +$2 +0%
Emmanuel & Brigitte Macron divorce in 2025? Jan 02 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Zuckerberg divorce in 2025? Jan 02 $1,721 +$2 +0%
Trump divorce in 2025? Jan 02 $2,537 +$3 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025? Jan 02 $4,706 +$5 +0%
Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025? Jan 02 $7,984 +$16 +0%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 29 $405 +$91 +23%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 29 $17,173 +$19 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Dec 24 $3,940 +$52 +1%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 24 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs? Dec 23 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the playoffs? Dec 23 $4,151 +$4 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs? Dec 23 $8,879 +$9 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Dec 23 $3,980 +$59 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $13,508 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2025 AL MVP? Dec 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will José Ramírez win the 2025 AL MVP? Dec 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2025 AL MVP? Dec 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $59 +$2,589 +4402%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $46 +$722 +1570%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 09 $8,162 +$195 +2%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $14,062 +$28 +0%
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win the 2025 AL MVP? Nov 23 $373 +$17 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 23 $1,071 +$100 +9%
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2025 NL MVP? Nov 03 $4 +$194 +4860%
Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBI's? Oct 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $569 +$754 +132%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $1,408 −$1,408 -100%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $418 −$378 -90%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $4,014 +$62 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $1,953 +$47 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $4,930 +$70 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $120,000 $0 +0%
Will Matt Olson lead the MLB in RBI's? Oct 01 $3 +$2 +100%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $12,156 +$111 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $9,920 −$7,470 -75%
Will Mike Trout win the 2025 AL MVP? Sep 12 $0 $0 +200%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $250 +$36 +14%
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk? Aug 08 $428 +$716 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$9,345
politics 27% −$29,527
world 19% +$1,272
sports 4% −$10,734
economics 2% +$415
culture 1% +$247
tech 1% +$300
weather 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 98¢ $1,474 2h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 98¢ $114 2h
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $147 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $3,920 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $3,920 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $245 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $1,958 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $980 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $784 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $4,655 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $245 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $1,958 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $1,174 127d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY No 100¢ $19,912 160d
Trump divorce in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2,537 162d
Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2,994 162d
Bezos divorce in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $41 162d
Zuckerberg divorce in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,721 162d
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $254 162d
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $917 162d
Emmanuel & Brigitte Macron divorce in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 162d
Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4,990 162d
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4,706 164d
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $260 164d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $496 164d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL Yes 100¢ $1,941 169d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL Yes 100¢ $50 169d
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,001 169d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL Yes 100¢ $2,001 169d
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+87.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
all 121 +106.6% +87.0% 78% 25% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +87.0% 25% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here +69.1% 21% -22.5%
15% +52.7% 19% -30.0%
20% +37.8% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,593.68 · official $1,593.68 (match) · 3500 history records