Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd42f…e0aa crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$532 (+9%) realized +$532 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%53W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$780
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 35% +2.8%
≤30d 151 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 35% +2.8%
≤90d 151 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 35% +2.8%
all 151 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 35% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 35% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 34% -7.0%
15% -26.4% 33% -16.0%
20% -33.6% 32% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$34 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses53 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$323 +867%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$62 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$246 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$286 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$238 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$162 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$111 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$86 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$86 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$296 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$67 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$132 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $360 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $37 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $32 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $37 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $37 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $32 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $38 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $28 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $181 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $27 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $266 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records