Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd436…f521 crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$660 (+16%) realized +$659 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%59W / 66L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$248
14 days+$206
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$298
other 21% +$53
sports 6% +$137
world 1% +$92
weather 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 41% +19.6%
≤30d 34 -20.2% -27.8% 35% 35% +3.9%
≤90d 125 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 42% +3.7%
all 125 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 42% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 42% +3.7%
10% -22.9% 35% -6.2%
15% -30.3% 30% -15.2%
20% -37.2% 27% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$14 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$659
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses59 / 66
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 129
History coverage39d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -35%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $50 +$92 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $402 +$92 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +128%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$96 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $17 +$37 +216%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 24? May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $100 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 23 $52 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 18 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 18 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 18 $31 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 17 $11 +$24 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 17 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 17 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 16 $57 −$5 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 16 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 16 $101 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $142 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $30 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $50 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $402 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.06 · official $101.06 (match) · 271 history records