Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd436…16d1 crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-6%) realized −$23 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%39W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$39
other 11% −$52
sports 2% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -20.0% -27.6% 40% 38% -16.0%
≤30d 97 -20.0% -27.6% 40% 38% -16.0%
≤90d 97 -20.0% -27.6% 40% 38% -16.0%
all 97 -20.0% -27.6% 40% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 38% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 38% -24.1%
15% -40.9% 37% -31.4%
20% -46.7% 37% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)97 / 104
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 50¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$9 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 34m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.05 · official $30.16 · 259 history records