Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd43a…ca73 weather 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+18%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%50W / 157L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +81.8% +64.5% 26% 23% +27.3%
≤30d 200 +67.5% +51.6% 24% 20% +6.7%
≤90d 207 +62.8% +47.3% 24% 20% +2.4%
all 207 +62.8% +47.3% 24% 20% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.3% 20% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here +33.2% 19% -7.4%
15% +20.3% 18% -16.3%
20% +8.5% 18% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses50 / 157
Open positions15
Markets (closed)207 / 222
History coverage38d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +1600%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +800%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +1800%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +700%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.89 (match) · 1155 history records