Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd43a…3571 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-4%) realized −$50 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$160
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +29.4% +17.1% 50% 50% -24.8%
≤30d 19 -4.0% -13.1% 68% 58% -20.4%
≤90d 19 -4.0% -13.1% 68% 58% -20.4%
all 19 -4.0% -13.1% 68% 58% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 58% -20.4%
10% -21.4% 32% -28.0%
15% -29.0% 16% -34.9%
20% -36.0% 11% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$63 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage26d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $287 −$114 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $57 +$56 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $129 +$35 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $129 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $135 +$34 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $136 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +90%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $142 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $119 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $99 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $31 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.80 · official $16.80 (match) · 94 history records