Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd43e…b2c0 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,171 (+1%) realized +$1,024 · open +$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate57%52W / 40L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$918per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$181
14 days+$650
30 days+$1,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$951
politics 28% +$1,077
crypto 18% +$354
world 9% +$359
economics 5% +$200
sports 2% +$407
finance 1% −$139
tech 0% +$25
culture 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +38.8% +25.5% 100% 50% +0.6%
≤30d 12 +50.2% +35.9% 58% 50% +21.4%
≤90d 19 +15.5% +4.5% 47% 42% +2.7%
all 92 +9.8% -0.7% 57% 33% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 33% -8.2%
10% -10.2% 26% -17.0%
15% -18.9% 23% -25.0%
20% -26.8% 21% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,074) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$139 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$1,020
Realized+$1,024
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses52 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)92 / 100
History coverage236d
Avg bet$918
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $300 $363 +$63 (+21%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 94¢ $200 $263 +$63 (+32%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under 0¢ 92¢ $0 $187 +$187 (+0%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $173 $86 −$86 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $1,504 +$108 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $206 +$469 +228%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $102 −$8 -8%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 06 $260 +$303 +117%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $204 +$462 +226%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $306 −$205 -67%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 30 $101 +$84 +83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $1,000 −$15 -2%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 02 $161 +$84 +53%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 27 $324 +$133 +41%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $1,074 −$20 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Mar 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? Mar 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1? Mar 21 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of February? Mar 21 $195 −$195 -100%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 01 $144 −$81 -56%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $273 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 1? Mar 01 $4,000 +$8 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $283 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 01 $450 +$48 +11%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $2,890 +$79 +3%
Anthropic CEO arrested? Mar 01 $380 −$5 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $300 +$698 +233%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Feb 28 $397 −$149 -37%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$410 +205%
Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Qu Feb 26 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $100 +$123 +123%
Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? Feb 21 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $113 +$19 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 18 $162 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Feb 18 $44 +$6 +15%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $3,949 −$155 -4%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $164 +$326 +199%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 6 to F Feb 14 $117 +$83 +71%
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Santosh Gujrathi Vidit vs Sam Shankland (Advance Feb 13 $94 −$94 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9? Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 2? Feb 13 $178 −$178 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Feb 13 $400 −$303 -76%
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 13 $52 −$52 -100%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND BUY 22¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $151 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 28¢ $102 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 93¢ $1,504 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $300 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $103 16d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 39¢ $93 16d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 20d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 20d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 20d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $206 20d
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 22d
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 22d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $666 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 14¢ $93 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $306 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 66¢ $985 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $1,000 27d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $260 27d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 54¢ $101 27d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 81d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 81d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 81d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $224 86d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 86d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? SELL No 80¢ $1,054 88d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $254 88d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $5 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,020.20 · official $1,070.20 · 529 history records